Why even a strong El Niño does not guarantee a poor Indian monsoon

In the summer of 1997, one of the strongest El Niños of the 20th century took shape in the Pacific Ocean. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted a monsoon rainfall deficit of 8% below the average, as was expected in El Niño years. However, by the end of September that year, rainfall levels were nearly normal.

This year, a “ferocious” El Niño is taking shape, and is expected to peak only in December. The 2026 southwest monsoon ended nearly 13% below the long-term average of 87 cm. East and Northeast India had their driest season since records began in 1901.