As many as 188 of India’s scientists and ecologists jointly published an appeal to fellow researchers and field practitioners to prepare for the effects of upcoming El Niño — a global weather phenomenon that dampens the monsoon and leads to extreme hot and dry conditions in the subcontinent.
In the Pacific Ocean where El Niño originates, temperatures have steadily risen above the 0.5°C threshold, reaching +2.6°C in August 2026. Projections report possible anomalies of up to +4°C, which is higher than at any time in the past 1,000 years, based on reconstructions from coral cores, they said.
Over the upcoming months, the signatories warned, India’s natural systems are likely to experience a range of potentially devastating impacts as a result of El Niño. “These include widespread bleaching and mortality of coral, an increase in wildfires, and the death of large rainforest trees. With a high probability of drought and extreme heat conditions, this year’s El Niño is likely to be catastrophic for India’s farmers, fishers and shepherds as well. In addition, though, more subtle impacts on India’s nature — including delayed fruit production or changes in animal behaviour — could be equally important, but may be much less visible unless you are specifically looking for them,” they said.
With a high probability of drought and extreme heat conditions, this year’s El Niño is likely to be catastrophic for India’s farmers, fishers and shepherds as well. Photo: Special Arrangements
The ‘Call to Action’ urges scientists to take advantage of the warning signs and mobilise as a community to document and study the impact of this event on India’s nature, arguing that better science and documentation are essential to preparing India for a climate resilient future.
Jayashree Ratnam, Scientist, National Centre for Biological Sciences, said in a release: “The coming year will be a litmus test for tropical forests and trees in India. Huge forest trees may appear indestructible, but in the Western Ghats, many of them are already near the limit of the heat they can tolerate. Large trees are especially susceptible to extended droughts. Trees in cities are also vulnerable because of the urban ‘heat island’ effect. It is vital to understand how the coming El Niño will impact trees and other plants — as these are the foundations on which all other life depends.”
“I have witnessed the devastating impacts of El Niños on India’s coral reefs before, and it is heartbreaking. Coral reefs can be remarkably resilient, but they need at least a decade after every major die-back of coral to show significant recovery. The last major El Niño was in 2024, and barely two years after that event, the projected scale and intensity of the heat wave that is currently headed our way is truly scary,” said Rohan Arthur, Marine Biologist with Nature Conservation Foundation.
More subtle impacts on India’s nature — including delayed fruit production or changes in animal behaviour — could be equally important, but may be much less visible. Photo: Special Arrangements
Roxy Mathew Koll, Climate Scientist with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, also said India’s monsoon season is closing with a rainfall deficit, but the impacts may not end there. “They can creep into the seasons ahead and cascade through depleted soil moisture and water storage, land and marine heatwaves, stressed crops and livelihoods, forest fires, coral bleaching and less visible ecological changes. This gives us a short but valuable window to act. We must document these changes as they unfold, but also safeguard the ecosystems that remain and reduce the pressures already weakening them. What we learn and protect during this El Niño can help India prepare for a warmer and more volatile future.”
What is the 2026-27 ‘Super’ El Nino?
El Niño is a periodic climatic event (every 2-7 years) that is triggered by changed ocean circulation and warming in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Its consequences vary in different parts of the world. In India, El Niño events are typically associated with higher temperatures and a delayed/reduced monsoon. Within the Indian Ocean, the El Niño interacts with another system, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can either dampen or amplify El Niño conditions regionally, according to the signatories.
“Although the last El Niño was only two years ago (2024), all signs are that we will see another event this year, but much larger in magnitude. Since May 2026, sea surface temperatures in the Pacific have exceeded 0.5°C above normal (the threshold for declaring an El Niño event), and those temperatures have been rising steadily, reaching +2.6°C in August 2026. Projections report possible anomalies of up to +4°C, which is higher than at any time in the past 1,000 years, based on reconstructions from coral cores,” the document explained.
It added that the main effects of the El Niño are expected to be felt in the northern hemisphere (including India) from November 2026 onwards into the next year. Indian Meteorological Department bulletins project El Niño effects until at least March 2027 (when their projections end), and the effects are likely to continue well beyond then.
“Based on earlier (albeit less extreme) El Niño events, the Indian landmass is expected to experience substantially hot and dry conditions, and weak monsoons. The surrounding seas are likely to witness marine heatwaves. Of course, the intensities are likely to vary across the geography of the country, and it is difficult to predict the magnitude of impact across India’s ecosystems. Much will depend on how the IOD develops over the coming months,” it said
Published – September 19, 2026 09:47 pm IST
